China–Africa trade is expanding rapidly in 2026, but new figures show that the continent’s trade deficit with China has widened even as Beijing opens its market to more African goods.
Two-way trade reached about US$273.94 billion in the first eight months of the year, up 23.3% from the same period in 2025, according to figures attributed to China’s General Administration of Customs. Chinese exports to Africa rose 25.8% to about US$177 billion, while imports from Africa increased 19% to US$96.93 billion.
The difference left Africa with a trade deficit of roughly US$80.07 billion, about 34.5% wider than a year earlier.
The figures are significant because they come after China expanded preferential market access for African exporters. South Africa’s Department of Trade, Industry and Competition said a temporary zero-tariff scheme for 20 non-least-developed African countries took effect on 1 May 2026 and runs to 30 April 2028. Least-developed African countries were already receiving duty-free treatment under measures announced through the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation.
For South African exporters, the preference is not automatic. Goods must comply with the relevant tariff schedule and rules of origin, including certification requirements.
The latest trade figures therefore present African policymakers with a more complicated picture than rising trade alone suggests. African exports to China are growing, but Chinese shipments to the continent are increasing faster.
Africa’s exports to China remain strongly associated with minerals, energy products and agricultural commodities, while China supplies machinery, electronics, equipment and other manufactured goods. That structural difference has long shaped the commercial relationship.
The zero-tariff policy could give African producers a larger opening into the Chinese consumer and industrial market. But lower tariffs cannot by themselves create factories, logistics networks, export finance or internationally competitive African brands.
ANALYSIS: The central question is increasingly not whether China–Africa trade will grow, but what Africa will sell as it grows. If tariff-free access is accompanied by investment in processing, manufacturing and export capacity, African economies could capture more value before their goods leave the continent. If not, trade volumes may continue rising while the underlying imbalance persists.
Sources: China customs figures reported by AmCham South Africa/Ecofin Agency; South African Department of Trade, Industry and Competition; South African Revenue Service.